It is predicted that by 2022, 8.66 million cubic m

2022-09-28
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It is expected that by 2022, China will have an import gap of 8.66 million cubic meters of logs. Release date: Source: China wood industry information

due to well-known reasons, timber from Australia was banned at the end of 2020, and Russia also announced that it would ban log exports in 2022. According to customs statistics, the logs imported from Australia and Russia in 2020 were 4.565 million m3 and 6.341 million m3 respectively. Even if only the import of coniferous logs is counted, it is expected that there will be a log import gap of 8.66 million m3 by 2022

before 2020, domestic coniferous logs were mainly imported from New Zealand, Russia, Australia, Germany, the United States and Canada, and logs from the above six countries accounted for 79.7% of the total domestic logs imported in 2019. In 2020, the coniferous logs from Germany increased rapidly, with an increase of nearly 160% compared with 2019. The proportion of total log imports that can handle all kinds of stretching also increased from 8.19% in 2019 to 21.29% in 2020, effectively filling the log import gap of Russia, the United States and Canada

some friends may think that we can replace the number of logs imported from Russia by increasing imports from New Zealand, which also has a low threshold. In 2020, Russia exported more than 6 million cubic meters of logs to China. If supply stops next year, can New Zealand really provide additional production in 2022? According to the statistics of relevant institutions, the logging of New Zealand is close to the peak of 36million square meters, and the export volume is 50%, that is, whether 180 is complete or not, which is almost the limit of New Zealand's log export. It cannot completely replace the log import gap caused by the Russian ban

as for Germany, another country with rapid growth in log imports, the import of logs reached 2.0327 million cubic meters in 2021. Under the most optimistic circumstances, it is expected to increase the import of logs by nearly 4million cubic meters in 2021. However, at present, the price increase in the German log market is limited, and there has been a call to stop logging and sell at a low price. In addition to the regulations on limiting deforestation previously passed by Germany, which limits deforestation in Germany - adding more variables to the imported timber market, it is questionable whether German log imports can maintain a high growth in the second half of the year

although Russia's log export ban will not be implemented until 2022, in the most optimistic situation, New Zealand and Germany can provide an increase of about 6million cubic meters in 2022, but there is still a gap of nearly 2million cubic meters of coniferous logs. And this is based on the premise that the domestic wood demand will remain unchanged in 2022, so it is necessary to pay attention to the log import gap

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